Global food prices recorded a sharp increase of about 5% within two months following disruptions linked to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new assessment by the World Bank.
The surge comes after renewed conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026, which disrupted key shipping routes and pushed up energy and commodity costs worldwide.
The report indicates that food prices have now reached their highest level since January 2024, with oils, meals, and select grains driving the upward trend.
Oils and Meals Drive Global Food Prices Rise 2026
The World Bank analysis shows that the most significant pressure came from the oils and meals category, which jumped by 10% over the period.
This increase was largely linked to higher crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending requirements in major economies such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.
Soybean oil alone surged by 16% during the first quarter and climbed 25% year-on-year, supported by strong demand for renewable diesel and new biofuel targets.
Palm oil and soybean prices also strengthened due to increased biodiesel demand and renewed buying activity from China, although ample global supplies helped limit even steeper gains.
Grains Show Moderate Increase Despite Supply Stability
In contrast, grain prices recorded a more modest 3% rise, supported by what the World Bank described as relatively strong global supply conditions.
Wheat prices increased by 9% and maize by 4% over the quarter, driven by drought concerns in key producing regions and higher production costs.
Despite these increases, analysts noted that abundant stock levels helped prevent a sharper global spike in grain markets.
Comparison With 2022 Ukraine War Shock
The report highlighted that the current food inflation episode remains significantly more contained compared to earlier global shocks.
During the first two months of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, food prices surged by about 15%—nearly three times the current increase.
The World Bank noted that strong grain reserves and pre-secured fertilizer supplies among Northern Hemisphere farmers helped cushion the latest disruption.
Regional Food Inflation Pressures Intensify
Food security concerns have risen in import-dependent regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
Inflation pressures were particularly strong in Gulf economies after supply chain disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Iran recorded extreme vulnerability, with food inflation already at 98% as of February 2026.
Beyond the region, rising food inflation was also observed across Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, and South Asia.
Outlook Remains Uncertain Despite Stable Forecasts
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects only modest increases in global food commodity prices.
Grains are expected to rise by about 2% in 2026, while oils and meals may increase by 4%, with the overall food index forecast at roughly 2.5%.
However, the institution warned that risks remain tilted to the upside if geopolitical tensions persist or energy prices stay elevated.
The report also referenced projections from the World Food Programme, which estimates that up to 45 million additional people could face acute hunger in 2026 if disruptions continue, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENAAP region.
